Source: Workforce & Innovation Technical Solution for the U.S. Census Bureau

Most large, urban centers in the upper Midwest are growing slowly or declining. Among 10 cities similar to Indianapolis, only four, in addition to Indianapolis, have grown since 2000.²

The chart shows the annual rates of population change for Indianapolis and 10 peer cities during two windows of time. From 1980 to 2000, six of the 11 cities, including Indianapolis, grew. In the shorter window from 2000 to 2006, only five cities – again including Indianapolis – grew. The smaller cities grew more quickly and the cities that were larger to begin with grew more slowly or declined.

Most cities slowed down in the more recent period. Some that were growing (Indianapolis, Grand Rapids, Minneapolis and Columbus) continued growing more slowly. One (St. Louis) changed from a long-term growth city to short-term decline. Several that were already declining over the long term (Cleveland, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee) declined even faster since 2000. That leaves only Detroit, which declined at a similar rate in both the long and short term, and Louisville, which gained momentum after 2000.

Economic and social trends were at work in all the cities, limiting the potential for growth. One of the biggest factors was the physical limitations of the cities and counties. Their borders were fixed and could not be expanded. This is especially true of Cleveland, Detroit and Milwaukee, each of which is bounded on one side by one of the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the quality of housing and employment opportunities in the cities’ borders caused movement away from the central cities or away from the Midwest entirely. The Rust Belt in general has suffered since 1980, but Indianapolis is one of the few upper Midwestern cities that continue to grow.

2 The data for “peer cities” compare the population in the single county containing the city’s urban core.